A recent drone incident near the Baltic region quickly became the basis for a much larger – and false – geopolitical narrative. In its latest Hot Report, BECID examines how Russian propaganda transformed an accidental spillover event into claims that the Baltic states had deliberately “opened their airspace” to support Ukrainian attacks on Russia.
The report shows how this narrative was constructed and amplified within hours. What began in smaller Telegram channels was rapidly picked up by larger accounts and pushed into state-controlled media, before spreading across multiple platforms, including TikTok and news outlets. Through the use of manipulated visuals, speculative maps, and emotionally charged framing, the story was presented as credible “evidence” of Baltic states acting as co-aggressors.
Crucially, the report highlights how such narratives exploit moments of uncertainty. Real-world events with incomplete information create openings for disinformation actors to shape early interpretations, escalate tensions, and reinforce existing geopolitical narratives, particularly those portraying NATO as an aggressor. The speed, coordination, and cross-platform amplification observed in this case demonstrate a textbook example of modern information warfare in action.
The risks are significant. By framing NATO countries as direct participants in military actions, such narratives increase the potential for miscalculation and escalation, while also undermining trust in official information and exposing vulnerabilities in domestic information spaces.
By unpacking how this narrative spread and why it resonated, the report provides practical recommendations for governments, media, and the public on how to respond more effectively to fast-moving disinformation.
Read the full Hot Report to understand how a single incident can be reframed into a broader geopolitical narrative – and what can be done to counter it: